When placing wagers on football games, most bettors look at things like team records, player injuries, and recent head-to-head matchups to inform their decisions. However, one often overlooked factor that dramatically impacts a game’s result is the home field advantage.
Why home field advantage exists?
Home teams play half their games each season in the same stadium. This familiarity with the lighting, field surfaces, locker rooms, and more creates a comfortable environment that road teams lack. Visiting teams often struggle to adjust to these dynamics.
The energy of a raucous home crowd cheering loudly boosts the performance of home team players. Likewise, fans create distraction and communication issues for road teams forced to play in excess crowd noise.
Road teams must deal with the hassle and disruption of air travel to away games. Jet lag, cramped quarters, and unfamiliar hotel rooms all negatively impact rest and focus for road teams.
The NFL brackets games so that divisional opponents meet at least twice per year, once at home for each team. This scheduling quirk results in very even matchups where the home field takes on extra importance.
How impactful is home field advantage in football?
While UFABET football fans acknowledge home-field advantage is real, quantifying its impact better informs betting.
- Since 1966 in the NFL, the home team has won over 57% of games straight up.
- NFL home teams score nearly 3 more points on average than road teams
- In the college ranks, certain venues like Kyle Field (Texas A&M) boast home-winning percentages exceeding 80%
- Almost 75% of college teams have a home-field winning percentage over .600
These metrics prove that home-field advantage is much more than a mythical concept. The data shows tangible improvement in the host team’s chances across college and professional football.
Betting strategies using home field advantage
Armed with a deeper knowledge of home-field advantage, bettors deploy more effective betting strategies:
- Tease Sides With Home Teams: Teaser bets allow adjusting the spread but offer lower odds. Laying 6-7 points with a home favorite in a teaser increases win probability.
- Target Big Home Field Advantage Venues: Certain college stadiums like Wisconsin’s Camp Randall where opponents struggle dramatically. Watch for lines that undervalue these extremes.
- Back Undefeated Home Teams: Teams that are undefeated at home tend to continue strong late into seasons. Their proven ability to win on home turf persists.
- Home Dogs With Divisional Revenge: An undervalued home dog against a division rival they lost on the road to earlier in the season has value based on the advantage flipping.
- Key Number Considerations Around 3 and 7: Since many football games end with margins like 3 and 7, home field is hugely impactful in games with spreads near these numbers.
However, home-field advantage should not be overused. Carefully weigh it as one factor among many when making betting decisions.